Detalle de: Potential socio-economic impacts of climate change on Prunus production in Spain and Ukraine

Gobal warming is putting at risk many agricultural systems, particularly temperate fruit trees like Prunus species in warm areas. These crops depend on winter chill accumulation to release endodormancy and ensure proper development and production. At the same time, regions, where these crops have not been viable so far, could become suitable for their cultivation as the temperature increase would allow fulfilling the heat requirements for blooming while reducing the risk of injuries by spring frost. Several studies have addressed the risk of temperate fruits and nut production in warm areas like the Mediterranean basin, where the impacts of global warming will be particularly intense. Some of these studies also conclude that cold regions (e.g. Central Europe) would present more stable conditions for cultivating these crops during this century, suggesting that new viable cultivation areas could appear given the global warming. However, little research has been done regarding the socio-economic consequences that the future non-viability of many cultivars (especially the early-blooming ones) may cause in the incumbent regions. Likewise, no economic analyses have been done regarding the new cultivation opportunities that may arise in cold regions where stone fruit crops have not been traditionally grown. This project addresses these two questions following a common methodology in which prospects of future agroclimatic metrics relevant for temperate fruit production (e.g. chill and heat accumulation or probability of spring frosts) will be assessed for the main production areas in Spain and potential producing areas in Ukraine

Principal investigator: José Alberto Egea Larrosa

Participants: IP: José Alberto Egea Larrosa